Physical Sales Forecast Tool

How many format variants are you producing?

e.g. Standard Black LP, Gold Vinyl LP, Jewel Case CD = 3 variants.

Define each variant

Fill out production and pricing details for each format.

Fixed setup costs

One-time costs like lacquer, metalwork, or plating. Leave at $0 to skip.

Lacquer

Metalwork

Plating

Other

Timeline & sell-through

Establish your release schedule and expected first-year performance.

Announce Date

Street Date

Sell-Through %

Review & Launch

Confirm your production mix and select an allocation strategy.

Default Allocation

Auto-distribute via standard channel splits.

Manual Entry

I'll define specific channel units myself.

Enter Next Field ⌘ + Return Continue/Launch Shift + Enter Prev Arrows Navigate Fields

Physical Sales Forecast

Production Mix

Product	Qty	Unit Cost	Total

Allocation Summary

Channel	Units	Gross Revenue

Monthly Sales Plan (Units)

Confidential Financial Forecast • Generated via Sunset Songs Physical Forecast Tool

1) Production Costs

Mech $/unit

Define formats/variants you’re manufacturing. Totals feed the ROI / KPI math.

Format	Variant	Mfg Qty	Unit Cost	Total Cost
Totals

Fixed setup costs Lacquer Metalwork Plating Other

Tip: use TAB / Shift+TAB to navigate.

2) Allocation Strategy PPD = wholesale • SRP = D2C

For each product: set SRP/PPD and allocate units into channels. D2C fulfillment sells at SRP; tour sells at PPD.

Product	SRP	PPD	Unallocated	Amped	Integral UK	Integral EU	ShipRec (D2C)	ShipRec (Tour)	Ochre (D2C)	Ochre (Tour)

3) Sales Time Series Drives unit sell-through over time

Announce date

Street date

Horizon (months)

Sell-through by end (%)

Use default curves

Advanced Assumptions (edit curves)

Uncheck “Use default curves” to edit monthly % per row. Percentages should sum to your Sell-through target.

Copy curve from to

Rounding: floors each month, then puts remainder into Street month.

4) Financial Performance KPI = Gross Revenue / Cost

Monthly revenue (bars) + cumulative KPI (line)

Format Variant	Units Sold	Revenue	Mfg Cost	Royalties	Net Margin	KPI

How to Use

1. Production Costs

2. Allocation Strategy

3. Sales Time Series

4. Financials